The Green Belt is soon to be recoloured; but what does this actually mean, and to what extent should evolution from green to grey really ignite hope of solving the nation’s housing crisis?
It is well-known that the UK is entrenched in a housing crisis, that under the last Government deepened to an estimated under-delivery in the order of 50,000 homes per year, culminating in a dismal total under-provision of housing over the duration of that Government’s term, with real and appalling consequences for hundreds-of-thousands of British families. Against a background of tremendous need, the year ending March 2024 saw the lowest number of home approvals in the past decade, dropping nearly one-third compared to the number of homes permitted in the year to March 2019 (the peak of the decade).
The housing crisis is complex; there are many factors which can be cited as contributors to the demise of house-building – the state of the economy, a fluctuating political and policy environment, uncertainties and red-tape within the planning system, severe under-resourcing of planning departments, supply shortages, and rising costs of materials and labour. So, where does the solution lie?
For decades debates over the Green Belt have riled, but so far it retains its protected status, with the release or development of Green Belt land a notorious challenge. This remains true despite clear oddities and the non-sensical retention of land which clearly does not resemble the overriding vision of, or intention for, the Green Belt. Now, though, we hear talk of a recolouring; how significant is this? What are the potential and real implications of shading grey over green? What does Labour’s pledge really mean for the nation’s housing crisis, landowners, the house-building sector, and competing development interests over the newly-coloured Grey Belt?
It is early days, and the definition of the Grey Belt is, somewhat ambiguously, enraptured in the wording of ‘poor-quality’ and ‘ugly’, incorporating wastelands, carparks and industrial sites. This reflects a clear-sighted recognition that not all land within the Green Belt is of significant environmental value or warranting of protection against new development. The high-level of subjectivity within this description does, however, leave an element of uncertainty and invite opportunity for perversion. Will policy tests or statutory mapping be introduced to instil a level of consistency and certainty? Will baseline dates or safeguards be implemented to deter landowners from intentionally degrading their land such that it ‘becomes’ Grey Belt and reaps the dues of speculative development? What will be the mechanism to catalyse Grey Belt development – priority release from the Green Belt as part or ahead of local plan reviews; or relaxed tests for demonstrating ‘very special circ*mstances’ to justify development on a case-by-case basis; or new and different policies to specially address land which exhibits Grey Belt characteristics?
Atop these questions of ‘how’, are those of ‘what’ – what opportunities does the introduction of a Grey Belt really stimulate? It is estimated that the Grey Belt will unlock the delivery of 100,000 to 500,000 homes; but how far does this really go in addressing the nature of the need and the severity of the nation’s housing crisis? There is also relative silence around competing needs for other development types on Green / Grey Belt land, yet such needs are real and the subject of other pledges made by the new Government. Also remaining is the question of how this pledge will be delivered upon at a national-level and, dually, locally; decisions are made at the local level and, without the appropriate mechanisms, the courts will become clogged with local-level refusals of planning permission.
Thus, it is clear that, today, a lot of questions remain and many complexities require resolution, but this does not preclude anticipation for the future of Grey Belt sites. It is a signal for landowners and developers, stakeholders on both sides of the equation, to seriously review their interests in Grey Belt sites and consider strategic opportunities for feasibility and due diligence exercises. Where previous proposals may have gained no traction or faced outright refusal, it is trigger for a return to the drawing-board with new hope where real planning merit exists. It is a sign to the industry that houses will be built.
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